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bold predictions: euro 2012

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It’s time for another major tournament, and with Euro 2012 kicking off in both Poland and Ukraine this afternoon, we bloggers are pretty much obliged to compile lists of predictions about what will transpire over the next month.

euro 2012 starts off with a flowery-bang at the polish national stadium.

Thousands of predictions have rained down from the blogosphere over the last two weeks, most of which concerning themselves with what nation will take home the trophy, which player will bag the golden boot, and how many polish sausages will be consumed by drunken Irish fans as they flock from city to city. And if you ask me, that get’s a little boring.

Do I really want to be the 5327th blogger to choose Germany as my probable winner? No, especially if I pick the wrong team, giving all of you the ability to call me an idiot and hurt my feelings. And will my reasons for making said prediction really be that different from everyone else who’s written about it so far? Probably not.

So with that in mind, I’m making eight “bold predictions” about the competition outside of the normal realm of discussion:

  • Another major tournament, another major French-squad disaster. While the 2010 World Cup finals saw the team boycott a training sessionand eventually Nicholas Anelka sent home, this year’s blow up was far more catastrophic. With so many so many big-headed players — Ribery, Nasri, Evra and Koscielny (I kid) — the squad will actually collapse under its own weight like a black hole, crushing the players, the coaching staff and a handful of the members of the press to death. Initial reports out of France suggest that most of the population is only upset because Ramond Domenech was not still the manager, thus avoiding death by black hole.

sergio ramos cutting his trademark hair before the tournament seems like a bad omen for the spanish.

  • Sergio Ramos recently visited a stylist — there’s no way he visited a barber considering the hair he’s sported over the last 10 years — and cut off all of his hair. Like Samson’s famous locks being chopped before him, this will be the downfall in Spain’s title defense, not Barça/Real infighting or player fatigue.
  • Galvanized into rapid maturity by the mere threat of not being able to see Mario Balotelli play a full match if they racially abused him, Polish and Ukrainian fans shockingly abstain from hurling insults at minorities on the pitch. However, the tournament does not go down without any racial incidents. Unsurprisingly, John Terry is suspended for the remainder of the tournament after video evidence surfaces that he repeatedly called France defender Patrice Evra “negrito”, despite trying to justify it by explaining that name was kosher and non-offensive in East London while he was growing up.
  • Nicklas Bendtnar will win this year’s golden boot… well, at least that’s what he’s told all of his friends. And any pizzerias that won’t serve him since he doesn’t have his wallet.


thanks to espn, i know now that ronaldo and van persie are cyborgs, balotelli is magneto, and that schweini and xavi are… blurry?

  • ESPN’s launch of their brand-spanking-new ESPNFC.com (which, by the way, still doesn’t work in Chrome) kicks into overdrive with the tournament beginning today. And with that, we’ll be treated a lot more horribly shopped pictures gracing their front page — such as the one to the right. And from what I can gather, the head honchos in Bristol, Connecticut, have decided that star players in the tournament are actually X-men.
  • The Greek national team — Cinderella champions back in 2004 — are unable to escape the austerity measures that also grip their homeland, meaning they’ll be forced to scrounge for table scraps and root through dumpsters to feed the squad throughout the tournament. Due to the poor nutrition, Georgios Samaras’s flowing locks lose their natural luster, thus further depressing the Greek fans back home.
  • Wayne Rooney, Ashley Cole and Jermain Defoe make a bet with one another to see who can sleep with the most prostitutes during their time in the tournament. Each bags impressive numbers, with many high fives traded amongst them throughout the challenge. However, the only winner in the bet? Chlamydia.

“well, i’d love to throw matches for you silvio… but these potato-eating lads couldn’t win a game if they wanted to. so you should probably just pay off the refs again.”

  • Scandal has once again gripped the Italian national team ahead of a major tournament, with seemingly more and more players and coaches being accused of match fixing and betting scandals by the day. The trend will continue during the Euros, with the squad eventually being fingered for paying off not only match referees, but also hotel bar staff, massage therapists and bellhop. Ireland coach and fellow Italian, Giovanni Trapattoni was originally confronted after his Irish side lost all three matches — some thinking they had thrown the matches — but everyone eventually realized that they just sucked that bad.

Will any of these come true? Well, we’ll just have to wait and see.

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the decade that was – part 2

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Now for part two of my review of the last decade — and my apologies about being a few days late — whereI review and weigh in on the biggest stories of the 2000′s in the world of football. Thanks to all who read the first installment where I shared my choices for the Best XI of the decade, and sorry if I enraged you with my selection of Gary Neville. This caused a surprising uproar amongst the regular readers… who knew? But keep the comments and e-mails coming; I appreciate the feed back.

It’s been an eventful ten years, full of shocks and surprises. With that in mind, I’m sure that I will forget something huge. So let me know what you think I’ve left out.

liverpool’s champions league final come back was one of the best games of the decade

The Galácticos Era(s) (2000 & 2009)
As the saying goes, “money talks,” and Real Madrid has certainly done a lot of talking in the last ten years. Club president Florentino Perez revolutionized the sport by spending more money on individual players than most clubs would be willing to spend during an entire transfer window. Not only that, but he’s done it twice. In the early part of the decade, he brought in the likes of Figo, Zidane, Ronaldo, Beckham and Owen. And upon being reelected last summer, Florentino worked his magic again by capturing Kaká, Cristiano Ronaldo, Karim Benzema and Xabi Alonso. Perez realized that signing the world’s best players could not only bring you great success on the field, but they can also bring a lot more money back into the club through worldwide marketing and merchandising sales. The down side: Madrid’s lavish spending is almost single-handedly responsible for the wild inflation in transfer prices now standard in the transfer market.

The Italian Match-Fixing Scandal (2006)
Corruption is hardly a new concept in Italy, which makes it all the more surprising that everyone was so shocked by the news that several of Italy’s premier clubs were heavily involved in a deep match-fixing scandal just before the 2006 World Cup. When Italian officials finally came forward with over two years worth of evidence (including taped phone conversations and numerous referee accounts), four clubs were implicated in trying to influence favorable referee appointments: Juventus, AC Milan, Fiorentina and Lazio. The windfall was swift and harsh, especially for Juventus. The bianconeri were stripped of their 2005 and 2006 Serie A titles, relegated to Serie B, and were handed a further 9-point deduction. The rest of the clubs were spared relegation, but were handed heavy point-penalties for the 2006-2007 seasons (including a 17-point deduction for Milan, which helped to keep them out of the following campaign’s Champions League).

World Cups outside Europe and the Americas (2002 & 2010)
Well it only took FIFA sixteen editions of the World Cup finals to realize that they had been a little biased in awarding tournaments to host countries. Up until the 2002 edition, every single World Cup had either been held in Europe or the Americas. However, after seeing the amazing success achieved in 1994 in the United States, FIFA began to realize that there was a great untapped (profit) potential to hold the tournament in non-traditional football markets. First was the 2002 tournament jointly hosted by South Korea and Japan, which has resulted in a huge growth in interest the game in Asia. In turn, that spawned a massive boost in profits for the Premier League in particular. Then FIFA took another gamble, awarding the 2010 edition to South Africa. Whether or not this provides another financial boost for the game remains to be seen. But if nothing else, the passion the African continent has shown for the sport in the lead up to the cup is promising.

The Mircacle in Istanbul (2005)
Though I guess it could only really be called a miracle if you support Liverpool! Either way, the 2005 Champions League final contested between Liverpool and AC Milan was a match for the ages. In the rare case that you can’t recall the game, I’ll do you the favor of providing a recap. After falling behind 0-3 in the first half, the Reds staged an unbelievable second half comeback to tie the game before the end of regular time. Inspired by stunning performances from Steven Gerrard and Jerzy Dudek (funny, it’s nearly impossible to say “stunning performance” and “Jerzy Dudek” in the same sentence any longer), the Scousers netted three times in six minutes and eventually prevailed on penalties. This was easily one of the best games I’ve ever watched, and if you some how missed it, find a way to watch it… NOW.

who could forget zidane’s gaffe in the 2006 world cup final?

Zidane Headbutts Materazzi (2006)
Zizou, already a living legend due to a sparkling career with a winner’s medal from nearly every single major championship (1998 World Cup, 2000 Euro Championships, 2002 Champions League, a La Liga and multiple Serie A titles), was possibly just minutes away from adding another title and cementing his legacy as one of the greatest ever players. Prior to the tournament, he had announced his plans to retire from professional football after the title-deciding final. Sadly, that’s not the way it went down. Regardless of what center back Marco Materazzi must have said, his words must have been harsh enough to make Zidane become temporarily insane. As evidence, the Frenchman headbutted the Italian to the floor. Zidane controversially was shown a straight red (it is widely believed that all of the reffing staff missed the incident, but that the fourth official saw the replay on the jumbotron and advised the center ref to award the red), and he would then miss the penalties, where France would lose the shootout. Unfortunately, and especially for Americans who are not as familiar with the game, Zidane’s legacy now centers around a single, ill-timed foul.

Beckham Comes to America (2007)
I really doubt that you don’t know anything about this subject. But i’ll write about it anyway, like you have no clue what i’m talking about. Ten years ago, it would have been unimaginable to have the biggest name (notice how i didn’t say the best player) in football playing in MLS. But that became a reality on January 11, 2007, when the former England captain David Beckham signed a five year contract with MLS’ LA Galaxy. So how did he end up here? When beckham signed the contract, he was currently (and stupidly) being left out in the cold by both Real Madrid and England, with no end in sight to his expulsions from either team. He probably thought his time had passed, and that it was time to make his long-predicted move across the pond. The league changed their salary cap rules to make his astronomical salary possible, all in the hopes that Becks would be able to raise the profile of the sport in this country. While his on field success has been limited during his time in the States, he’s arguably done what he was brought here for. Evidence: the most ticket requests for next summers World Cup are not coming from soccer-crazy countries such as England, Brazil or Spain… they’re coming from the good old US of A. Thanks, David!

Chelsea’s Kakuta-gate Transfer saga (2009)
The most recent story on this list may not seem like such a big deal, at least right now. But trust me when I say that this story will have steep implications down the road. Chelsea’s illegal recruitment of French starlet Kakuta from Lens shined the spotlight on how many elite clubs are robbing small clubs of their best talent at a very impressionable age. Recruiting these players in before they sign a professional contract means that the club won’t have to pay a significant transfer fee to the club that spent all of their time/money/efforts on developing the player. As a rising star at the age of 14 or 15, how could you say no to a club like Chelsea? I certainly could, but only because it’s Chelsea… I hate Chelsea. But had any other top club offered, I would have jumped at in less than a second. It’s for that reason that I fully expect that this story will eventually lead to some sort of restrictions of the transfer of players under the age of 18.

Underdog Greece Win the Euros (2004)
If in the spring of 2004 I were tell you that i knew that Greece were going to win that summer’s European Championships, you would have laughed so hard you would have wet your self and then slapped me in the face with your newly wet pants. And that’s exactly how the world felt when Greeks stunned the field and pulled of the Cnderella stories to end all Cinderella stories. After all, how many Greek players can you name off the top of you head? I’ll give you a minute… still no answer? Yeah, that’s what I thought. And FYI… Georgios Samaras hadn’t even made his full international debut at that point. To make the title even more juicy, they had some spectacular results during the course of the tournament: a tie against 2008 Champions Spain, a quarter final win over reigning champion France, a semifinal win over the Czechs, and two wins over heavily favored host Portugal (including the final).

Marc-Vivien Foé Dies on the Pitch (2003)

cameroon’s marc-vivien foe’s tragic on field death was one of the low points of the last ten years

The scene: the 2003 Confederations Cup semifinal. The participants: Marc-Vivien Foé and his African-champion Cameroon side, facing off against Columbia. In the 73rd minute, Foé collapsed near midfield with no one around him. For the next 45 minutes, trainers and emergency medical staff desperately tried to restart his stopped heart, but to no avail. Cameroon courageously decided to play the final just two days later to honor their fallen teammate, and ended up losing to France. An autopsy later revealed the Foé died of previously undiagnosed heart condition called hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, helping to shed light on players needing to be evaluated for such potentially life threatening conditions.

Manchester City Hit the Ownership Lottery (2008)
Remember the fuss that everyone made when Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich (net worth at the time: $11 billion) bought Chelsea and flooded the market with millions of dollars to build his own all star team? On the final day of the 2008 transfer window, Manchester City’s secret takeover by the Abu Dhabi United Group (estimated net worth: hundreds of billions of dollars) suddenly made Chelsea’s billionaire seem like the poor kid on the block. The new Arab owners promised to make Cit-eh into a title contending side, and immediately followed up by landing Robinho from Real Madrid for a British-record £32.5 million. Since then, the Citizens have spent £100 million plus to land a bevy of stars (Gareth Barry, Roque Santa Cruz, Kolo Touré, Emmanuel Adebayor, Carlos Tévez and Joleon Lescott)… although all those millions haven’t been able to keep City in the top four or spare manager Mark Hughes the axe. I guess that’s predictable though… I mean it is City.

reactions to the world cup draw

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seven months out, and we’re already reaching fever pitch. today is the day that the 32 qualifying nations find out their fates for next summer’s world cup finals in south africa.

the stars aligned in cape town to help align the groups for the 2010 world cup.

i almost feel like i’m on the right side of the pond today, with all of the coverage that the draw in cape town is drawing from the american press. i’ve seen prominent, front page stories from CNN, the LA times, usa today, sports illustrated and the new york times. twitter is predictably blowing up, with even non-soccer fans tweeting about the sport for a change. and that’s not even mentioning all of the on-air time that we’re getting from ESPN2 today: a full hour-long pre-draw special from ESPN’s soccer team (i could, however, do without the presence of john harkes. i won’t get into that now.), and 90 minutes of post draw analysis, not to mention they’re covering the entire draw live.

the always easy-on-the-eyes charlize theron hosted the draw, although she might regret the decision after being accosted by fifa general secretary jerome valcke’s kiss. and they also brought out a host of athletic stars to further boost the profile of the draw, least surprising being david beckham and the small animal on his head his awful hair. but we’re not here to talk about celebrities, are we?

many were surprised to see portugal and france miss out on being seeded for the draw, but i can’t really argue with that logic. both associations had horrid qualifying campaigns, although the same could be argued for argentina (i suspect that their flaky manager, legend diego maradona, had something to do with that). going in, the USMNT seemed primed for a group of death again, and france definitely deserved to get a hard draw for their dubious qualification. but of course, that’s not how things all ways work out.

group a – south africa, mexico, uruguay, france
well, it’s fair to say that our hated rivals to the south had a somewhat friendly draw. mexico gets put in with the softest seeded side in south africa (tangent warning — why is fifa so dead set on giving the host country such a free pass? they’re the only side in the field that didn’t have to go through any qualifying, and then we give them a further break making sure they’re not pitted against one of the top sides in the world. i think that’s a load of bullsh*t.). however, they will also face a stern uruguay side that scored bucket loads during qualification. and of course the remaining side in the group is france, who were spared the sword they so deserved during this draw.

this group should really only be contested between les bleus and el trí. luckily for the mexicans, france will probably keep their pathetic excuse for a coach, raymond domenech. he couldn’t coach ice to melt, let alone coach an extremely deep side to advance. so i fully expect the french to once again struggle to make it to the next round. and sadly, i don’t think that the home side have enough talent to take advantage of the coaching shortcomings.

PLAYERS TO WATCH: steven pienaar (south africa/everton), adrés guardado (mexico/deportivol la corunña), diego forlán (urugay/atlético madrid), yoann gourcuff (france/bordeaux)
PREDICTIONS: mexico takes the group, while the french barely nip south africa for second.

group b – argentina, nigeria, south korea, greece
though many may give this group a “group of death” ranking, i don’t quite think that’s appropriate. that said, every side in this group is a pretty solid side and making it one of the hardest to predict.

with the talent that argentina have in their ranks, they should walk through this group. unfortunately, this national team is in crisis as they have an idiot at the helm. brilliant as maradona was as a player, he is a terrible manager and has done a very poor job inspiring a side with the best player in the world (messi) at their disposal. nigeria, though shaky in qualifying, have been one of the more dominant teams in africa for the last 16 years. i expect a good showing from south korea, as they look to build on their their seventh straight finals appearance. they will hope to channel their semi-final run of 2002, but . lastly are greece, champions of europe in 2004, who managed to scrape into the finals by beating a scrappy ukraine side in the european play-offs.

maybe having a legend like maradona leading your talented side isn't such a great idea.

though one would think that argentina will rule this group, it wouldn’t be wild to see any one of these teams advance. i do think the weakest team, on paper at least, is greece. but the game isn’t played on paper, is it?

PLAYERS TO WATCH: lionel messi (argentina/barcelona), taye taiwo (nigeria/marseille), park ji-sung (south korea/manchester united), sokratis papastathopoulos (greece/genoa)
PREDICTIONS: south korea shock to win the group, with argentina making it through by the skin of their teeth and at least one fake maradona seizure on the field after a narrow victory.

group c – england, united states, algeria, slovenia
i went into this draw fully expecting the USMNT to get screwed over again. i knew it was going to happen. everyone i spoke to knew it would happen. and then it didn’t, and i don’t even know how to react. relief? ecstatic? horror?!?! despite the favorable draw, i’m still very worried about the yanks. we have a nasty habit of playing to the level of our competition most of the time (remember the loss to iran in the 1998 world cup?), and and then there’s the bob bradley factor (read my previous piece on bob here). he’s not what i would call a tactical genius.

for that reason, i wouldn’t be surprised for them to get a positive result against england; i mean history is on our side. but for the very same reason, algeria and slovenia scare the crap out of me. i don’t really expect for the boys to get more than a single point from those games combined (so a loss and a tie). i hope for more, but i’m not holding my breath. the other thing we have to be concerned about is our growing list of injured stars, and whether not those players (onyewu and davies in particular) can make miraculous recoveries in time to make the plane.

england should also pretty happy with their draw. and while they’re sure to trip up against one of the sides (fingers crossed for the game against us!), fabio capello’s side should have no problem winning the group. if they can stay healthy, they will remain one of the tournament favorites. capello is arguably one of the best managers in the game, and i think he has righted the ship that mcclaren was trying to sink.

as for the other two sides, i really don’t know a damn thing about either. both algeria and slovenia are minnows in the world game. but they can’t be slouches either, as they qualified over traditional sides (egypt and russia respectively) that many expected to qualify.

PLAYERS TO WATCH: wayne rooney (england/manchester united), landon donovan (united states/l.a. galaxy), karim ziani (algeria/wolfsburg), rene krhin (slovenia/inter milan)
PREDICTIONS: england take the cake, while i’m pulling for the americans to take second.

beckham vs. donovan: the galaxy teammates will face each other in the first round

group d – germany, australia, serbia, ghana
this is another really tough group to call, as each side has a lot of talent and a lot to prove. the germans are the obvious favorites, despite not having a truly sensational player on their side. that said, i think they’re a very organized squad that play team football. you also can’t discount their extra motivation following the tragic suicide of number one goalkeeper robert enke.

austrilia’s golden generation will be looking to make one more big splash on the world scene before their time has passed. serbia are a team on the rise; they could easily upset the germans on the right day. and lastly are ghana, who are my dark horse in this tournament. i fell in love with them during the 2006 finals, and i think they could make a deep run on their home continent. led by do-it-all midfield michael essien, they’ve got a surprisingly deep squad peppered with euro-based talent.

while i think germany will win the group, the other spot is seriously up for grabs. can the socceroos reproduce their asian domination from qualifying? can serbia shake their underdog tag? and can ghana be the tormentors that they were in the germany four years ago. i’m having a hard time choosing!

PLAYERS TO WATCH: mario gómez (germany/bayern munich), tim cahill (australia/everton), danko lazović (serbia/psv), michael essien (ghana/chelsea)
PREDICTIONS: die mannschaft will steam roll the group, maybe with a hiccup along the way. the second spot is a bit of toss up, but i’m pulling for ghana to advance for the second straight finals.

group e - netherlands, denmark, japan, cameroon
i think this group will pretty much be straight up what you would expect from it. and while there could be some surprising results along the way, it would shock me if holland and denmark didn’t advance. of course i know i’ve just jinxed them both, but whatever. on paper both sides are far superior to the perennial asian and african finalists. i’m not saying that japan and cameroon suck by any means, i just don’t think either side is dangerous enough to overcome their european conunterparts.

the dutch and danes each rolled in their qualification campaigns, hence my belief that they will dominate this group. but don’t be surprised if the indomitable lions pull of a miracle on their home continent, especially if eto’o get’s hot.

PLAYERS TO WATCH: wesley sneijder (holland/inter milan), niklas bendtner (denmark/arsenal), shinji okazaki (japan/shimizu s-pulse), samuel eto’o (cameroon/inter milan)
PREDICTIONS: the flying dutchman will get a point from their clash with the danes, but win the group by squashing the other two sides. denmark will clean up, but not to the extent of the dutch, taking second place.

group f – italy, paraguay, new zealand, slovakia
boy did the defending champions land a sweet draw. as of right now, it looks like the italian’s path to the round of 16 is almost guaranteed. their biggest resistance will probably coming from the paraguayans or slovakians. keep in mind that the italians are an aging team (a prime example being former world player of the year fabio cannavarro, who is a shell of the player we saw inspire the italians to world cup glory in 2006), and their qualifying campaign was far than stellar. so maybe there is hope out there for the other sides to catch the azzurri on a day where their old legs aren’t quite up to the task.

paraguay and slovakia will definitely be threats to the italians, though. paraguay will view their CONMEBOL campaign as a huge success, including several high profile results, the biggest of witch were a 1-0 win over argentina and a 2-0 win over brazil. slovakia were shock group winners in eufa qualification, having dispatched traditional powers such as the czech republic and poland. and then there is new zealand, making only their second finals appearance ever. unsurprisingly, i’m not expecting much out of the kiwis.

PLAYERS TO WATCH: giuseppe rossi (italy/villareal), nelson haedo valdez (paraguay/borussia dortmund), shane smeltz (new zealand/gold coast united), stanislav šesták (slovakia/bochum)
PREDICTIONS: italy will move on to try  to defend their crown in first, with paraguay stealing a surprise move into the second round.

group g – brazil, north korea, ivory coast, portugal

luis fabiano lit up south africa during the confederations cup. will he repeat the task in 2010?

ladies and gentleman, this is your group of death. sure, there is a completely underwhelming team in the group in north korea (though i’m half holding out hope that their supreme leader kim jung-il will fire their manager and try to guide the team himself). but the rest of the teams are all being considered by some members of the press as potential teams to hoist the world cup trophy on july 11th.

what can i say about brazil that hasn’t already been said? talent wise, they’re loaded. they have some of the best players in the world playing for some of the biggest clubs in the world. and though coach dunga has them playing atypical brazilian football (this is called defense in the rest of the world), his results are hard to ignore.

les éléphants, lead by chelsea giant striker didier drogba, are considered by many to be one of the best african teams of all time. they have loads of players playing in european first division sides. honestly, i wouldn’t be shocked at all to see them make a run at the semifinals.

and then there is the enigma that is portugal. they have the other best player in the world, but poor cristiano ronaldo tends to disappear in big games (hey ronnie, just a reminder: every game in the world cup is big game). so if they can coax their star man to finally prove his big price tag, keep their deep side healthy, and put their dismal qualification run behind them, then we can expect big things out of this side. but that’s a big if.

PLAYERS TO WATCH: luís fabiano (brazil/sevilla), hong yong-jo (north korea/fc rostov), didier drogba (ivory coast/chelsea), cristiano ronaldo (portugal/real madrid)
PREDICTIONS: a tricky group will produce a predictable winner in brazil. as for the second spot, i’m going to have to go with the elephants of the ivory coast edging out the fancied portuguese. this will no doubt be followed by a large ronaldo temper tantrum.

group h – spain, switzerland, honduras, chile
despite the spaniards being knocked out of the confederations cup this past august by the USMNT, i still think they’re the best team in the world. their qualification record was spotless, going undefeated while scoring 28 goals and only conceding 5. they have the deepest midfield in the world, so much so that great midfielders such as everton’s mikel arteta can’t even hope to get a cap. and if torres and david villa can stay healthy, they have the most potent attacking duo in the world. though la roja might struggle to keep their amazing run of form going, they could easily replicate their success at euro 2008.

and boy did spain get a cake draw to help them repeat their success. switzerland won their uefa qualifying group, but it was very weak (greece, latvia, israel, luxembourg and moldova). honduras did so so in CONCACAF qualifying, but almost all of their wins were at home. and though chile were shock runners up in CONMEBOL qualifying, i can’t really expect them to be strong enough to knock down the spaniards.

PLAYERS TO WATCH: andés iniesta (spain/barcelona), alexander frei (switzerland/basel), david suazo (honduras/inter milan), mark gonzález (chile/CSKA moscow)
PREDICTIONS: spain sweep the competition aside to win the group. the other three teams will battle it out, but i think the swiss will end up at the top of the heap.

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so here we are. you’ve got my initial predictions for what’s going to go on in our newly formed groups. now we have the next seven months to argue back and forth about who will or won’t  meet my expectations. but remember, these are just predictions.

i for one find this next wait to be the worst seven months ever; the anticipation for the summer’s events is just too much to handle. thank god we’ve got all of the action in europe to keep my attention tied up. otherwise, i might just go insane.

euro play-off picks

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sure, most of the club soccer world is [supposed] to be on international break this weekend, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a boatload going on in the world of football this weekend.

arshavin wonders, "why wouldn't you pick the russians?"

MLS’s conference finals are this weekend (i’m watching the LA-houston game as i write this). the NCAA D3 soccer championships started this week, with my alumnus ohio northern university crashing out in the first round to brockport on penalties, but congrats to stevens (NJ) for their first round win. and of course, world cup qualifying will wrap up this coming week.

the last of the african qualifiers are this weekend, with some traditional powers hoping for miracles in their quests to take part in the first big party on their continent. nigeria need to win against kenya, coupled with a tunisia loss or tie, to qualify for next year’s finals. egypt, reigning african cup of nations champion, have to obliterate group leaders algeria by at least a four goal margin to win their group.

oceania region champions new zealand will begin playing of their two leg play off with asia’s fifth-place bahrain. bahrain are looking to make their first finals appearance, and seem to have some momentum after knocking out perennial finalists saudi arabia. new zealand, the lone “power” in oceania after australia left the region to join asia (tangent warning — still one of the most brilliant football decisions ever by a national governing body. australia is far too good of a national side to only have a half chance of making it to the finals. their winning the asian region qualifying this time around is proof of that move’s brilliance.), are hoping to make their first appearance since spain in 1982, their only finals appearance ever.

the other inter-region playoff is this weekend as well, with south america’s fifth placed uruguay taking on CONCACAF fourth placed costa rica. i’ll be pulling for the our region’s representative in this tie, as a win for them only makes our region (and the USMNT) look stronger.

but on the minds of most football fans will be the beginning of the four european play-off ties, and i thought it would be proper to cast my predictions before the first legs take place. novel approach, huh?

greece vs. ukraine
i’ll be honest here: i have no clue who to pick in this tie. off the top of my head, here’s everything i know about greece: they pulled off the cinderella of the last 50 years by winning euro 2004 but only three players from that final remain in the squad, they have a defender that plays for liverpool (sotiris kyrgiakos), and my knowledge ends there.

for ukraine, i’m not much better. i know they’re captained by schevchenko, who hasn’t played like he did during his milan glory days since… his milan glory days. they also didn’t select the most beautiful horrid man-mane in football out of the squad for the playoffs, meaning we will be spared the presence of liverpool’s andriy voronin. again, after that, i don’t know anything else about them.

ukraine haven’t lost since a 2-1 defeat to england at wembly, since going 3-0-2 in qualifying. greece on the other hand have looked less impressive, although they haven’t lost since a 2-0 loss to switzerland in september. however, their two wins since have been against minnows latvia and luxembourg, and they also tied moldova. so who am i picking? i’m going with form here, and i’ll back ukraine to come out of this tie.

russia vs. slovenia
arshavin and co. are the heavy favorites in this tie, and rightfully so. under manager guus hiddink, the russians have developed into a quality side full of attacking poise. however, there is some concern about hotspur roman pavlyuchenko. the big lad up front hasn’t seen much of the pitch this season for spurs, and hiddink has voiced his concern over the former prolific scorer’s potential lack of form.

as for slovenia, i don’t know a damn thing about them. i know less about them than i do either ukraine or greece. they came out of a relatively weak group that should have been won easily by the czech republic, but somehow came through after finishing by slovakia. they can’t be that awful then, right?

so this makes my pick easy here: russia to roll through this tie. i love arshavin, and i expect him to lead his team through. plus, having slovakia and slovenia in a world cup finals would be far, far, far too confusing for my brain to handle.

portugal vs bosnia-herzegovina
now we’re getting into the really juicy of the ties. portugal are, on paper at least, the heavy favorites for this playoff. but their qualifying campaign has been anything but stellar. sure, they only lost one match in qualifying (to group winners, denmark). but for a team that’s considered one of the most talented in the world, they should have bulldozed their group.

and who can forget the absence of ronaldo, who is still out after (foolishly) taking part in their last qualifier. yes, they called him in for both of the qualifiers, but there is no way real madrid will allow him to take part in these games. none. and he shouldn’t. but his absence definitely affects their team psychologically, as losing your most talented player is never a great thing for team morale. however, i sometimes think they play better without him, as they don’t tend to be as one dimensional as they are with him on the field. normally, their offense revolves around getting ronaldo the ball, then standing still and hoping he creates some magic.

bosnia-herzegovina are another team that i know little about, but for some reason i’m liking them. they came out of a tough group, finishing ahead of established sides such as belgium and turkey. wolfsburg forward edin džeko is their star man, one of the hottest properties in europe during the summer transfer window, so keep an eye on him during their home leg in particular.

my pick: bosnia with the upset. i can see them pulling an away goal in portugal (probably a 1-1 draw knowing portugal), and then holding out for a nils draw at home. i know, i know. fifa will rig this game to make sure ronaldo is in south africa, but let a man dream for just a minute.

french boss raymond domenech thinking, "how can i screw up the ireland ties?"

france vs. ireland
and here’s the big ticket match up. two quasi-european heavyweights battling it out for a single spot in next summer’s finals. and i say “quasi” because neither team is near where they used to be.

honestly, france have enough talent in their ranks that this match up shouldn’t even be an issue. let’s just look at their attacking options: henry, anelka, benzema, gourcuff, and toulalan (but probably not due to injury). they are a deep team, with a talented array of players in every position. yet the team have no confidence in manager raymond domenech, and haven’t for some time now. they’re a very dysfunctional squad, and their results show it.

the irish national side is a shade of it’s former self, and haven’t really been a quality national side for quite some time now. coach giovanni trappatoni has done well to re-unite the squad though, and they’ve shown promise under the italian’s reign. but even they have some skeletons in their closet.

who would you say is the best irish player is? take a look at their roster, and you would probably say robbie keane. but you would be wrong. the best irish player out there, hands down, is manchester city’s stephen ireland. don’t worry, your eyes didn’t deceive you: he wasn’t on that squad list. stephen had a falling out with the irish FA last year and has since refused to play for the national team. and that’s a shame, because he is a breathtaking footballer. keane would have had 2-3 more goals in qualifying if he had ireland pulling the strings for him.

so who’s my pick in this big match up? i want to pick the irish; i really do! but all i can see them managing at home is a 0-0 draw, and then having an henry-inspired french team pull it out at home in the second leg. i would love to call another upset here, but i just don’t know if the irish can overcome france’s depth and take advantage of the french team’s shortcomings.

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so there you have it, my picks for the last european world cup spots. now, let’s see how they hold up. feel free to skewer me on any and all misses. otherwise, expect me to gloat extensively. enjoy all of the games this weekend!